Monday, June 1, 2015

America's Nightmare as The Fallen Angel

Many fear that the current deflation outbreak will turn into a “vicious circle of deflation,” in which consumption is postponed and investment plans are curtailed in anticipation of lower prices. These behaviors contribute to a further drop in demand and additional reductions in prices.

Deflation is misunderstood
The first part is correct "Consumption is postponed and investment plans curtailed" but is it

1) in anticipation of lower prices
2) in anticipation of job losses, not getting social security payment, not saving enough for retirement

there are very different explanations for consumer behavior here. 

One claims that future liabilities (expenses) will be lower if I wait, the other is based off expectations of future cash flow from my assets (in essence I've written down my social security assets and goodwill and must increase savings, lower expenses to meet future spending).
And is it really only fear itself  and something far fetched or is it something that happens all the time all over the world? 

Take what's being asked of the Greeks and their 'secure' retirement funds:
“Pensions should not be higher of 53% of the salary due to the financial situation of the social security funds.”

Pension for a civil servant (director, 37 years of work) should come down to €900 from €1,386 today after the pension cuts during the austerity years.

Pension for private sector – IKA insurer (37 years of work, 11,000 IKA stamps) and salary €2,300 should come down to €1,250 from €1,452 today after the austerity cuts. (examples* via here)
Of course, with the PSI in March 2012, Greece’s social security funds suffered a huge slap in their deposits in Greek bonds.

There's no confidence that the future will provide sufficient opportunities, there's no hope of a brighter tomorrow. The most powerful country the world has ever seen, slouched over on its mound of treasures, angry, divided and hopeless.

I agree with someone at the FED?

“If consumer behaviour is still being impacted by the experience of the financial crisis, the Great Recession, and the painfully slow recovery, then it is possible that the economy will not be as robust as many economic models would suggest, because the models do not take into account this behavioural change,” Eric Rosengren said.

How do you inspire confidence in the future? How does one unite a divided country and steer it towards a common productive goal? What has been the most effective way to redistribute wealth and lower inequality? What can bring back millions of manufacturing jobs in less than a year?

War...preferably between nations with great wealth that will purchase from the US, a repeat of WW2. perhaps SE Asia, Japan vs China? Maybe Saudi Arabia vs Iran? Maybe Europe vs Russia? the possibilities are endless.

The change in mindset (across the populace and as reflected in our congress, senate and white house) and wealth redistribution are the hardest tasks to accomplish and have a longer impact than the war itself.